Neither Timothy Daniels nor LaToya McGee voted in last month’s midterm elections. But last week, both were motivated to vote early for Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock in the Georgia Senate runoff.
For Mr. Daniels, it all comes down to character. “When I go to vote, I look at the morality and values of a person,” he said.
Raphael Warnock defeated Herschel Walker in November largely because he performed better in the independents despite low black turnout. What does this mean for the second round on Tuesday?
For Ms. McGee, the most important thing is getting to know each other. “[Senator Warnock] is from our community, so he knows us,” she explained. “It’s important for me”.
Young black voters like Mr. Daniels and Ms. McGee could play a decisive role in Tuesday’s election race between Senator Warnock and Republican nominee and former football star Herschel Walker. The historic race between two black candidates, the first of its kind in a former Confederate state, reached a runoff after neither won a majority in November. More than 1.8 million Georgians voted early, and at least 76,000 of them did not participate in the November elections.
Independent voter Jeff Fortson, who stood in an hour-long early voting line Thursday, said he was voting for Mr. Walker. A high school Spanish teacher and a self-proclaimed liberal, he sees Mr. Walker as a pragmatic choice.
Neither Timothy Daniels nor LaToya McGee voted in last month’s midterm elections. But last week, both were motivated to vote early for Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock in the Georgia Senate runoff.
For Mr. Daniels, it all comes down to character. “When I go to vote, I look at the morality and values of the person,” he said as he left the convention center in downtown Savannah.
For Ms. McGee, the most important thing is getting to know each other. “[Senator Warnock] is from our community, so he knows us,” she explained. “It’s important for me”.
Raphael Warnock defeated Herschel Walker in November largely because he performed better in the independents despite low black turnout. What does this mean for the second round on Tuesday?
Young black voters like Mr. Daniels and Ms. McGee could play a decisive role in Tuesday’s election race between Senator Warnock and Republican nominee and former football star Herschel Walker. The historic race between two black candidates, the first in a former Confederate state, reached a runoff after neither won a majority in the November vote. More than 1.8 million Georgians voted early, about a quarter less than last month’s early vote, according to GeorgiaVotes, but at least 76,000 of them, such as Mr. Daniels and Ms. McGee, did not vote. .
Notably, Senator Warnock defeated Walker last month by nearly 40,000 votes despite relatively low black turnout. The percentage of black voters in Georgia has fallen to its lowest level since 2006, and the trend is being seen in other states, including North Carolina and Louisiana. Senator Warnock offset that decline by winning over college-educated white voters, a coalition that quickly became more democratic across the country and helped Georgia become politically competitive.
The November election also saw a resurgence of voter divisions as Mr. Walker’s campaign faced numerous controversies, including allegations of abuse and questions about his powers. Many who voted for Republican Gov. Brian Kemp rejected Mr. Walker, who received 200,000 fewer votes than the governor. Of course, at least some Kemp-Warnock voters are likely to be Democrats. But more than 81,000 Georgians also voted for the Libertarian Senate candidate who was no longer on the ballot, raising questions about whether they would switch to Mr. Walker or simply stay at home.
“Currently, about 10% of voters are likely to be convinced,” said Trey Hood, a political science professor at the University of Georgia and director of the poll. “When it’s this close, all these things matter. It doesn’t require much movement.”
However, repeat elections tend to rely heavily on base turnout. Senator Warnock will rely heavily on campaigning efforts from the Democratic Party of former gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams, who helped paint Georgia purple after a narrow loss to Gov. Kemp in 2018, despite last month’s rematch between the two states were not close. For his part, Mr. Walker has the backing of a re-elected governor and a strong political organization, which he is activating on behalf of the former Heisman Trophy winner.
“At this point, I think people have digested all the information they were going to digest” about the problem or candidate, Professor Hood said. “This is a war of turnout, not a war of persuasion.”
Control of the US Senate is no longer up in the air. The Democrats won 50 seats, and Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-break gave them a majority and the opportunity, among other things, to confirm President Joe Biden’s judicial choice. But adding the seat is still important because it would give the Democrats a majority on the committee, not share power with the Republicans.
It would also prevent individual senators from derailing the party agenda, which some analysts say is a key motivator for the base.
“Georgia’s liberal and liberal voters recognize the need for an additional Senate vote” to help minimize the influence of one senator who may not represent different constituencies, said Pearl Dow, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta.
However, given that the Republicans have regained the House of Representatives and are unlikely to sign most of Biden’s legislative agenda, if at all, this will no longer be significant in the next two years.
The close proximity of the November vote may also have boosted the turnout, which seemed to take some voters by surprise – a clear sign of how important each vote is.
“Turnout is not just about problems, it’s about how people individually feel that their presence is part of the system,” said Professor Doe.
Such was the case with the Savannah voter, who declined to give his last name for reasons of confidentiality. “I voted because my vote means a lot in Georgia,” he said.
Opinion polls show Senator Warnock by a small margin. The Democrat is also senior pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, where Martin Luther King Jr. preached and recently campaigned. He rallied voters on churches and college campuses and appeared last week with former President Barack Obama when he called on voters to finally elect him to a six-year term.
“This is the fifth time my name has been on the ballot in less than two years, and all for the same position,” Senator Warnock joked.
The Georgia Senate race is the most costly of the entire 2022 cycle, with Senator Warnock raising more money than any other federal candidate.
For his part, Mr. Walker traveled through the state’s rural areas on his “Evict Warnock” bus tour. As analysts predict an early vote could favor Senator Warnock, the Republican is pushing for a mass vote on Election Day, highlighting his nostalgic appeal in the football-mad state and his ordinary persona.
“Herschel Walker, for all his faults, is a new candidate and a new face,” said John Taylor, a political scientist at the University of Texas at San Antonio. “He’s strong because he’s kind.”
Some in his own party fear Mr. Walker’s suffrage given the abortion allegations. Over the weekend, the outgoing Republican lieutenant governor called him “one of the worst Republican candidates in our party’s history.”
In recent days, Mr. Walker has campaigned with supporters such as South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham and Gov. Kemp. Mr. Walker, whose support from former President Donald Trump helped secure his Republican nomination, did not travel to the state to campaign but was reportedly planning a “telephone rally” in support of Mr. Walker on Monday night. Some in his party blame the former president for his disappointing performance in last month’s midterm elections.
“We are in a serious fight,” Walker said at a rally on Friday. “This is not just a political battle, this is a spiritual battle.”
If Walker wins on Tuesday, the momentum of the Democrats in recent cycles in the state will noticeably slow down, and these gains will look more like an anomaly caused by Trump. In fact, last month the Republicans won every job in the state of Georgia except for a seat in the Senate.
Independent voter Jeff Fortson, who lined up to vote in downtown Savannah an hour early Thursday, said he was voting for Mr. Walker. A high school Spanish teacher in a Braves knit cap who has described his political views as libertarian, sees Walker as less biased and more pragmatic.
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Post time: Dec-13-2022